| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Nevada | 46-11 | 1883.4 | +0.9 | 1884.3 | 98.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Florida International | 34-0 | 1884.3 | +1.1 | 1885.4 | 98.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Villanova | 52-6 | 1885.4 | +0.0 | 1885.4 | 90.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Oregon | 24-30 | 1885.4 | -35.4 | 1850.0 | 34.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | UCLA | 37-42 | 1850.0 | -77.2 | 1772.8 | 93.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Northwestern | 21-22 | 1772.8 | -73.2 | 1699.6 | 81.8% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Iowa | 24-25 | 1699.6 | -36.4 | 1663.2 | 50.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Ohio State | 14-38 | 1663.2 | -4.1 | 1659.1 | 6.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Indiana | 24-27 | 1659.1 | -21.3 | 1637.8 | 19.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Michigan State | 28-10 | 1637.8 | +22.8 | 1660.6 | 78.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Nebraska | 37-10 | 1660.6 | +32.3 | 1692.9 | 54.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Rutgers | 40-36 | 1692.9 | +32.0 | 1724.9 | 69.5% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | Clemson | 22-10 | 1724.9 | +41.2 | 1766.1 | 51.5% |